A Sudden Ceasefire Emerges and Falters
After 12 intense days of warfare, former President Trump announced a “complete and total” ceasefire between Israel and Iran on June 24, marking a dramatic pause in hostilities. The blueprint called for a phased truce: Iran to stand down first, followed by Israel after 12 hours, with the entire conflict officially concluded 24 hours later.
Missiles and Denials
The ceasefire’s foundation was shaky from the start. Iran reportedly launched missiles into Israeli airspace just before the ceasefire was to activate, killing at least four civilians in Beersheba and injuring many more. Tehran, meanwhile, denied violating any agreement, claiming their strikes were symbolic and retaliatory.
Israel Pushes Back
Israel quickly responded, stating that it had achieved its strategic goals by degrading Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile infrastructure. Nevertheless, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz warned that any continued violations could provoke a return to intense military operations. Israeli officials framed the agreement as being struck in coordination with Trump, emphasizing that the “dual existential threat” from Iran had been addressed.
Trump’s Arbitration and Rebuke
Trump, en route to the NATO summit in The Hague, forcefully urged both sides to comply especially Israel. He criticized the sudden Israeli strikes that followed the ceasefire deal, saying, “These guys had better calm down,” and warned Israel to “bring your pilots home, now.” He labelled violations by both countries unacceptable and accused networks like CNN of downplaying the destruction of Iran’s nuclear facilities.
U.S. Involvement Expands
The conflict widened on June 22 when the U.S. launched Operation Midnight Hammer, striking three Iranian nuclear sites including Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan with B-2 stealth bombers and Tomahawk missiles. Iran retaliated on June 23, targeting Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar with missiles but reportedly warned U.S. officials in advance, resulting in no casualties.
Global Ripples: Markets and Diplomacy
News of the ceasefire rattled global markets. Oil prices fell by roughly 3%, while U.S. stock futures turned positive, reflecting investor relief. Political figures, including UK’s Sir Keir Starmer, echoed calls for restraint and renewed diplomacy.
Scepticism Clouds the Ceasefire
Despite the hopeful ceasefire, analysts remain cautious. Civilians on both sides have witnessed the conflict’s devastating toll, hundreds of Iranian military and civilian casualties, including at least 224 according to state media, and scores of dead or wounded Israelis. European leaders, too, have urged caution, stressing that lasting peace will require more than just halting bombs.
Trump’s Diplomatic Gambit
Trump’s announcement is being framed as a foreign policy coup, announced just before he entered NATO discussions in The Hague. Yet foreign policy experts and past ceasefire efforts, including his own 2023 Israel-Hamas truce that unravelled after two months, mean optimism is mixed.
The Road Ahead
Questions linger: Will the pause endure? What becomes of Iran’s nuclear program after the U.S. strikes and Israeli campaign? Can regional diplomacy – involving Qatar’s mediation and potential Iran-U.S. nuclear talks, shift from hostility to stability? Meanwhile, both Israel and Iran warn they remain ready to act again if provoked.
Final Word
The declared “official end” to the 12-day war may be premature. With missiles flown, installations bombed, and diplomatic relations fractured, peace here remains fragile. Trump’s bold interjection may pause the guns, but durable peace will require far more than a ceasefire, it demands genuine agreements, verifiable inspections, and enduring trust.
Leave a Reply