India Unlikely to Import Bullet Train from Japan After Failed Price Negotiations and Project Changes

Key Points:

• India’s Mumbai-Ahmedabad High-Speed Rail (MAHSR) project shifts to a Make-in-India approach, awarding contracts to BEML-Medha Servo Drives instead of importing Shinkansen trains from Japan.
• Stalled negotiations with Japan over high costs, prolonged timelines, and changes in project norms, including increasing elevated track sections, prompted this shift.
• Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) continues to fund the project but is renegotiating loan terms amidst modifications.

Why Did Negotiations with Japan Fail?

1. Cost Concerns:
   • Shinkansen train costs rose to ₹460 crore per trainset, considered “inflated” by Indian authorities.
   • Maintenance required by Japanese firms would further escalate costs.
2. Technical Changes:
   • Elevated track length increased from 144 km to nearly 90% of the total route due to land acquisition issues.
   • Japan opposed this change, citing time consumption and safety risks.
3. Timeline Delays:
   • Prototype production and testing by Japan would take nearly three years, pushing project completion to 2027, while India targets a 2026 launch.

Current Status of the MAHSR Project

• Progress:
  • Physical progress: 57.4% (target: 61.1%).
  • Financial progress: ₹76,635.49 crore spent (63.45% of total cost).
• Indian Developments:
  • BEML-Medha Servo Drives to manufacture high-speed trains domestically, costing ₹200-₹250 crore per trainset.
  • First operational route planned between Surat and Bilimora by mid-2026.
• Challenges:
  • Land acquisition delays, primarily in Maharashtra.
  • Rising project costs from ₹1.08 lakh crore to ₹1.1 lakh crore.

Broader Implications

India’s pivot to indigenous train manufacturing reflects a strategic effort to reduce dependency on foreign vendors, control costs, and meet deadlines. However, the shift highlights tensions in international collaborations and the challenges of balancing cost-efficiency with ambitious infrastructure goals.

Would this approach impact India’s relationship with Japan, or set a precedent for future high-speed rail projects?