Domestic Rates Edge Lower on June 26
As of June 26, 2025, Indian gold prices slipped slightly in line with global trends. At 10:00 AM, 24K gold traded at ₹9,894/g and 22K at ₹9,069/g, a marginal decline of ₹1 from June 25 levels. Delhi saw a notably softer rate: 24K at ₹9,909/g and 22K at ₹9,084/g, down by ₹1 and ₹15 respectively from the previous day.
Global Drag From Dollar, Yields
Gold remains under pressure internationally. On June 20, spot gold traded around $3,334/oz, a week-long slide of approximately 2.5%, as a stronger US dollar and resilient treasury yields outweighed geopolitical risk premiums. These dynamics were compounded by tempered expectations of imminent Fed rate cuts, which diminished gold’s conventional safe-haven appeal.
Earlier Losses Exacerbate Current Temps
Analysis from market experts flagged that the Fed’s hesitancy to shift policy weighed on gold around mid-week, prompting declines. Traders used the dip to take profits, driving prices lower in both spot and futures markets. This aligns with broader investor behaviour, where a stronger dollar reduces gold’s attractiveness to foreign buyers.
Geopolitical Pullback Softens Demand
Tensions in global hotspots, particularly around Israel, Iran, and Russia, briefly bolstered gold earlier in the week. But as ceasefire efforts emerged, the urgent safe-haven demand subsided, keeping gold prices subdued. In India, significant losses followed, with 24K gold dropping roughly ₹2,700 per 100 g over June 24–25, largely eroding a multi-day rally.
Citi Predicts Further Slide by Late 2025
Major institutions have joined the cautious chorus. Citi recently lowered its gold trend forecast, projecting spot prices under $3,000/oz by late 2025 or early 2026, with an updated near-term target of $3,300/oz and long-term of $2,800/oz. Their analysis shows a balance of risk: a 20% chance each for a surge past $3,500 or a drop below $3,000.
Mixed Technical and Structural Outlooks
Views diverge on gold’s future. Industry veteran Peter Schiff remains bullish, calling recent declines “misguided” and citing persistent inflation and macro fragility. Conversely, other analysts project a potential 38% drop over five years, driven by weakening demand and swelling supply.
India’s Seasonal Buffer
Domestic demand in India, driven by weddings, festivals, and central bank buying, still provides a supportive backdrop. Analysts anticipate year-end rates between ₹85,000–₹90,000 per 10 g, assuming no major shocks. Some also expect occasional technical rebounds, citing patterns from earlier in the year’s 6% drop followed by a quick recovery.
Watchlist: Key Triggers Ahead
Gold’s trajectory now depends on several global and domestic triggers: upcoming US inflation numbers, Federal Reserve commentary, and developments in geopolitics. A dovish shift from the Fed or unexpected crises could reignite gains, while persistent strength in the dollar or more rate hikes may drag prices further.
Bottom Line: Gentle Dip, But High Stakes Ahead
Gold’s modest dip as of June 26 may seem minor, but it’s set against a backdrop of shifting monetary policy and fragile demand. For long-term investors, the slight correction could present a strategic entry point if inflation and unrest persist. Short-term traders, however, must remain nimble, any economic pivot or geopolitical flare-up could swiftly reverse current trends.
Leave a Reply