A recent study published in The Lancet Journal highlights the significant decline in India’s fertility rate, a trend that has persisted since 1950. According to the report, the total fertility rate (TFR) in India has decreased from 4.8 children per woman in 1950 to 2.2 in 2021, with projections indicating a further dip to 1.29 by 2050. This downward trend in fertility rates is observed amidst India surpassing China as the world’s most populous country in 2022.
The study sheds light on the global dynamics of birth rates, noting a decrease from the peak of 14.2 crore live births in 2016 to 12.9 crore in 2021, despite a rise from 9.3 crore in 1950. In contrast, India saw over 1.6 crore live births in 1950, increasing to 2.2 crore in 2021, with expectations of a decline to 1.3 crore by 2050.
Researchers from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 Fertility and Forecasting Collaborators, who conducted the study, pointed out the persistent high fertility rates in low-income countries and projected that live births in these regions could nearly double from 18% to 35% between 2021 and 2100. These countries are also likely to face severe climate-related challenges, exacerbating issues related to food, water, and resource insecurity.
The study anticipates “considerably steeper fertility declines” in sub-Saharan Africa due to increased education and access to contraceptives. It highlights the need for focused efforts to address the high fertility challenges expected to prevail throughout the 21st century in the world’s poorest areas.
Poonam Muttreja, Executive Director of the Population Foundation of India, underscored the implications of the declining fertility rate for India, including challenges such as an aging population, labour shortages, and potential social imbalances due to gender preferences. The findings call for gender-sensitive population and health policymaking to address these emerging challenges effectively.
Leave a Reply