- A new poll from the New York Times shows Trump leading Harris by just 1 point, making it a tight race.
- Biden’s withdrawal has energized the Democratic base, but Harris faces stiff competition from Trump.
- Battleground states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan remain key to deciding the election outcome.
Can Trump maintain his slim lead over Harris?
After President Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw from the 2024 election, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris has seen a rise in polls, but the race remains extremely close. According to the latest poll by the New York Times/Siena, Donald Trump is leading Harris by just 1 point, 48% to 47%, within the margin of error. The poll was conducted among 1,695 voters nationwide, with a margin of error of 2.8 points. FiveThirtyEight, a highly respected polling analysis site, has rated Times/Siena as the most accurate pollster based on transparency and accuracy.
Despite Trump’s slight national lead, Harris holds small advantages in some battleground states. In the polling averages, Harris leads Trump by 2 points, 49% to 47%, according to the Times, and by 3 points on the FiveThirtyEight average. However, Trump has been performing better in swing states. CBS News swing state polling from Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin shows a near deadlock, with Harris leading slightly in Michigan and Wisconsin but tied with Trump in Pennsylvania at 50% each.
Will the battleground states decide the election?
Even though Harris has a slight national lead in some averages, it’s the battleground states that are likely to determine the outcome of the 2024 presidential election. Polling in key states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan reflects just how competitive this race has become. These states are critical, and even a small swing in voter preference could alter the final result. In 2020, Biden won these states by narrow margins, and they are again pivotal for 2024.
The polls remain within the margin of error, indicating that the race is far from decided. Both candidates will need to focus their efforts on these key states to secure a victory in the upcoming election.
Conclusion
As the 2024 election draws closer, Trump and Harris are locked in an intense battle for the presidency. With national polls showing a statistical tie and battleground states presenting tight margins, the race is shaping up to be one of the closest in U.S. history. The final outcome will likely depend on the decisions of voters in key states, making every campaign move crucial in the coming months.
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