Will India Emerge a Winner or Loser Amid Trump’s Trade War Threats?

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With U.S. President-elect Donald Trump hinting at a new wave of tariff hikes, a potential global trade war looms, impacting countries reliant on U.S. trade. Historically, trade wars, from the Fordney-McCumber Act in 1922 to Trump’s 2018 tariffs, have demonstrated their damaging effects on global economies, raising prices for consumers and straining bilateral relationships. Trump’s recent campaign proposal of a 10%-20% tariff on imports and an aggressive 60% on Chinese goods signals a potentially massive shift in global trade dynamics, including for India.

Potential Impacts on India’s Key Sectors

India, currently holding a $35.3 billion trade surplus with the U.S., could face substantial repercussions if Trump implements such tariffs. Sectors vulnerable to higher duties include:

  • Pharmaceuticals: As the world’s largest generic drug producer, India could see new regulatory hurdles alongside tariff increases.
  • Automobiles, Textiles, and Steel: Trump previously targeted India’s high tariffs, such as on Harley-Davidson motorcycles, branding India the “Tariff King.” Increased duties on Indian exports could challenge these industries, particularly in steel and aluminum.

Could India Benefit from China’s Decoupling?

Trump’s drive to reduce U.S. dependence on China might open opportunities for India. Companies moving supply chains away from China could view India as a viable alternative, especially for critical and emerging technologies. A report by Nomura suggests that, as a domestic-demand-driven economy, India could experience limited spill-over from potential U.S. growth slowdowns, with possible gains from lower commodity prices due to slowed Chinese growth and lower oil prices from a fossil-fuel push.

India’s Strategic Alternatives and Global Trade Expansion

Despite uncertainties with U.S. trade policy, India’s trade with China and Russia has surged. China recently overtook the U.S. as India’s largest trading partner, while trade with Russia has quintupled, with an aim to reach $100 billion by 2030.

Conclusion: Winner or Loser?

India stands at a crossroads. Increased tariffs and stricter regulations from Trump could hamper exports, raising challenges in specific sectors. However, the potential exodus of foreign companies from China could bolster India’s manufacturing sector, positioning it as a critical alternative. As trade policies evolve, India’s adaptability in balancing trade partnerships and capitalizing on shifts in global supply chains may ultimately determine whether it emerges a winner or a loser in this unfolding trade narrative.

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