Maharashtra Assembly Elections 2024: Poll Predicts Strong Win for Mahayuti Alliance

Summary:

• Opinion polls indicate a clear majority for Maharashtra’s ruling coalition, Mahayuti, in the upcoming elections.
• Mahayuti is expected to secure around 145-165 seats, while the opposition, Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), may win 106-126 seats.
• Regional support for Mahayuti remains strong, especially in Western Maharashtra, Vidarbha, and Thane-Konkan.

What Does the Poll Reveal About Maharashtra’s Election Landscape?

With Maharashtra’s Assembly elections scheduled for November 20, a recent opinion poll by Matrize points to a likely victory for the ruling Mahayuti alliance. Conducted between October 10 and November 9 with over 109,000 participants, the poll suggests Mahayuti could claim up to 165 seats in the 288-seat Assembly, leaving the MVA, a coalition of Shiv Sena (UBT), Congress, and the NCP, with approximately 106-126 seats. Mahayuti holds a projected 47% of the vote share, compared to MVA’s 41%, while smaller parties are predicted to capture the remaining 12%.

Regionally, support for the Mahayuti, led by the BJP, is high, particularly in areas like Western Maharashtra (48%), Vidarbha (48%), and Thane-Konkan (52%). Meanwhile, the MVA is expected to perform well in North Maharashtra and Marathwada, where it could capture 47% and 44% of the vote share, respectively.

What Would an MVA Loss Mean for Maharashtra?

Should the poll’s predictions hold, a loss for the MVA would be a major setback following its recent Lok Sabha success, where it won 31 out of Maharashtra’s 48 seats. However, the MVA’s internal challenges around seat-sharing and leadership selection have added uncertainty to their campaign. Despite these issues, the coalition remains hopeful about their chances.

Campaign Strategies and Key Messages

The BJP is pushing its “Ek hain toh safe hain” (“Together, we are safe”) slogan, presented by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, which takes aim at the Congress for allegedly promoting divisive politics. The elections will take place in a single phase on November 20, with results to be announced on November 23.