A newly discovered asteroid, 2024 YR4, has raised concerns among astronomers as NASA confirms its increasing probability of colliding with Earth. Initially detected on December 27, 2023, by the Chilean El Sauce Observatory, the asteroid now carries a 3.1% chance of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032. This makes it the most significant impact threat recorded by asteroid tracking technology to date. While not large in size, measuring between 130 to 300 feet in diameter, its potential impact could still result in massive destruction. Scientists are closely monitoring its trajectory to assess the risks more accurately.
Potential Impact and Size of Asteroid 2024 YR4
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is approximately the height of the Statue of Liberty and is expected to travel at a speed of 40,000 miles per hour upon impact. If it collides with Earth, it would generate an energy output equivalent to eight megatons of TNT, which is about 500 times more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb. While it is not large enough to cause global extinction, a direct impact could devastate an entire city and its surroundings, leading to catastrophic loss of life and infrastructure.
NASA and ESA Observations
Both NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) have been actively tracking the asteroid’s trajectory. Currently, NASA estimates a 3.1% impact risk, whereas ESA’s estimate stands at 2.8%. However, scientists emphasize that this is not an immediate crisis.
“This is not a crisis today. This is not the dinosaur killer. This is not the planet killer. In the worst-case scenario, it will only affect a city,” said Richard Moissl, head of ESA’s planetary defense bureau.
The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) issued an official alert on January 29, 2024, as the asteroid’s impact probability crossed the 1% risk threshold. Continuous observations are being made to refine the calculations, and past cases have seen impact probabilities decrease to zero as additional data becomes available.
NASA Releases Potential Impact Zones
NASA has identified a risk corridor for 2024 YR4, covering densely populated regions across the world. The key areas at risk include:
- Eastern Pacific
- Northern South America
- Atlantic Ocean
- Africa
- Arabian Sea
- South Asia, including India
Major cities that fall within this impact corridor include Mumbai, Kolkata, Dhaka, Bogotá, Abidjan, Lagos, and Khartoum. These locations collectively house over 110 million people, raising concerns about potential casualties and destruction.
According to Los Alamos National Laboratory physicist Mark Boslough, predicting the asteroid’s exact level of devastation remains uncertain due to unknown factors like its porosity and density. These characteristics will determine whether the asteroid disintegrates in the atmosphere (causing an airburst) or impacts the ground.
2024 YR4 vs. Apophis: The Rising Airburst Risk
Asteroid 2024 YR4 has overtaken the previously feared 99942 Apophis, which once had a 2.7% chance of colliding with Earth in 2029 before new calculations eliminated the threat. Though Apophis is much larger at 1,100 feet, experts warn that even smaller asteroids like 2024 YR4 pose a higher airburst risk.
If 2024 YR4 were to explode in the atmosphere, it could cause an event similar to the Tunguska explosion of 1908, which flattened 800 square miles of Siberian forest. Scientists fear that such an airburst over a populated region could lead to severe destruction.
NASA’s Plan to Track and Mitigate the Threat
Given the potential threat, NASA is deploying advanced technology to monitor 2024 YR4 closely:
- The James Webb Space Telescope will begin tracking the asteroid in March 2025 to provide more precise data on its composition and orbit.
- Ground-based telescopes will continue to monitor its path until April 2025, after which it will become too dim to observe until June 2028.
NASA remains optimistic about managing the threat. The agency previously demonstrated asteroid deflection technology with the DART (Double Asteroid Redirection Test) mission in 2022, successfully altering the trajectory of a harmless asteroid. If necessary, similar deflection methods could be used to change 2024 YR4’s path and prevent a collision.
Despite the concern surrounding this asteroid, NASA reassures that time remains on our side. The vast majority of asteroids once classified as hazardous have been removed from threat lists after further observations refined their trajectories. While 2024 YR4 remains the only known asteroid with a greater than 1% impact probability, further data is expected to lower the risk or rule out an impact entirely.
Conclusion
While 2024 YR4 has raised alarms among scientists and the public, the ongoing tracking and advancements in planetary defense technology offer a high level of preparedness. NASA and ESA will continue observing the asteroid’s path closely in the coming years, with the possibility of implementing deflection measures if necessary. Until then, researchers urge calm and caution, emphasizing that asteroid threats are continually reassessed as new data emerges.
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